Kelly Criterion Calculator – Gambling Mathematics, Betting Formula 2020 Profits!


guys Kellen from Action Backers here hope
you all had an awesome New Year’s Eve and having a good start to your 2019 I
just wanted to talk to you quickly today about something I talked about in the
podcast which is how we bet for value so I thought it’d be cool to put together
for you guys a few calculators that I use so this is a spreadsheet that you
can use on your own so the first thing you’re gonna want to do here is just
come to file and then you’re just gonna want to make a copy for yourself and
that way you can edit it for yourself but let’s go through what these cells me
and how to actually use this sheet so to start with we have our IV calculator and
this is really simple so all you’re gonna say is whatever your risk is so in
this case we’re risking one point six six units to win one and then you’re
gonna set your unit size so I have it set to 25 but you can change it to
anything like and then you’re gonna enter in your predicted win percentage
so if you think it’s gonna win if you’re 65 you think there’s a chance that’s
gonna win sixty five point eight percent of the time then your evie on this bet
is five dollars and eighty cents in the long run meaning you should make that
bet however if we come to the second example if you’re risking one point
eight units to one one and you think that you’re the win percentage is only
fifty two percent you can see based on a hundred dollar unit size in the long run
you’re actually losing thirty four dollars and forty cents and you can
change this up you know even if it’s ten or actually let’s do I don’t know five
dollars even on five dollars you’re losing a dollar seventy two so you don’t
want to make that bet okay sometimes you’ll run into these marginal
bets here so you can see we’re risking two to win one but we think it’s a sixty
six point seven percent chance to win so 2/3 2/3 percent a chance to win and
you’ll see here that it’s in the long run it’s it’s plus evie but it’s
marginal so these are some of the ones where you’re laying a lot of juice maybe
on a heavy favorite so you’ll want to pick your spots here so
that’s essentially the e V calculator and how that comes into play is with the
implied probability and the Kelly criterion so excuse me the implied
probability this is essentially you’re just plugging in the odds that you’re
getting from your book so your positive and your negative and that’ll work out
the the vague that the books actually taking so an example here you know the
better I found the the underdog is playing at plus 175 and the favorite is
at minus 195 so you’ll notice here for the negative odds you don’t actually
have to put the negative in front you just type in the number and it’ll
calculate the fake so right now on this book the the on this bet sorry the book
is taking two and a half percent now what this means is we can use this
implied probability as well as an Eevee calculator to figure out what we should
bet so in this case we’ll look at the positive odds here so let’s say the book
thinks or though the line is telling us that it’s a thirty six point three six
percent chance to win but we actually think it’s forty percent what we’ll take
what we’ll do here first of all we can plug that in so let’s say we’re gonna
risk one to win one point seven five right and this is just divided by ten
divided by 100 here and let’s say one hundred hundred dollars unit size so
here we actually think it’s forty percent so you can see this is plus Evie
and Lauren we’re actually making ten dollars so but what what should we bet
should we just bet one unit on this sure we’ve got five units who really know
should we bet $100 I don’t know so to figure that out all
you would do is you would take the odds that you’re given so 175 convert them to
decimal odds which I’ve set up on this calculator to do for you so all you’re
going to do is plug in the decimal it’s here 2.75 your projected win
probability which we said was 40% and that’s going to calculate the
recommended wager size as a percentage of your bankroll and you can see the
different options for the full Kelly criteria on half 3rd quarter and eighth
that’s also going to tell you the corresponding weight your size in
dollars okay so in this case we should make that bet
if we wanted to get really aggressive with the full Kelly we’d be embedding
$57 I usually look at the half or third Kelly that’s that’s where I’m
comfortable your risk of ruin is a lot lower but you still have a lot of upside
so in this case I’d probably be looking around 1/2 Kelly so we’d want to make a
bet around $29 calculated as a as a unit that looks like 1.16 units so this unit
measurement is essentially just taking this calculation here which I’ve set to
two and a half percent of your bankroll so again you can enter your current bank
roll in here and you can see if we you know let’s do something like that it
will automatically calculate for you and change up everything you need so in this
case we like 1/2 Kelly 1.16 units again if you wanted to change up this unit
size make it more aggressive or more conservative you would just have to
click on the little 25 here and change the formula so essentially right now
it’s just multiplying the current bankroll by 25% which is pointing or
sorry 2 and 1/2 percent in which is point zero to five so if you wanted to
make it say 5% you either change it to a 5 and that would give you 50 if you
wanted to get really aggressive and change it to like 10% you go point 1 and
they’ll be obviously a hundred dollars I think especially with bank rolls around
$1,000 two and a half percent is really good to
start with and adjust as you feel comfortable again this is just to get
you a sort of a baseline you’re gonna be the Kelly criterion in the percentage of
your bankroll to tell you but I know like people like to see unit numbers and
things like that and for tracking and make things easier so all we’re gonna do
here is we like this play so now we have obviously up here our potential plays
and this is just to keep track while you’re going through and doing your
homework so you can see here I have a few plays from the other day and the
Hurricane Center’s Red Wings tabs and the Sharks and the Oilers that was from
New Year’s Eve we won three three point nine units on on this play mainly from
parlaying the the hurricanes and the Habs we got a huge like really great
price on the halves as you can see there were underdogs but we had them as big
favorites so we we bet them a lot there and then so all you would do is you
would just say Team X whoever you’re betting on and then you can just take in
you know if you want your half Kelly you would just say one point one six units
and it will tell you the wager amount that way you can get all your play set
up do your homework and then go to your book and just enter in your dollar
amounts for each play makes it really simple so this is this is mostly for
money line bets obviously it works for spreads as well if you want to or puck
lines just to check so for hockey specifically we use it mostly for money
line and and puck line but but it applies no matter what you’re betting
the other thing we have here that I made for you guys is a totals calculator now
I’ve made this specific to hockey so if you’re not looking to bet hockey that it
might not apply to you but the principle sort of remains the same so essentially
what we have here is anywhere you see blue in the cell other than this blended
goal total that’s an input okay so and essentially what we’re trying to do is
get a blended total using a couple different metrics and see compare that
total to what the actual line is so in this case you can see here we’ve gone
ahead and filled this this is old the road team was Vegas and
the home team were the Coyotes so the road team we took Vegas and however you
choose to figure this out is up to you we took the road goals for on average
which was two point seven four goals their shots four which is three point
nine six shots thirty one point nine six three shots four and then their average
shots per goal and this is simply just taking this number here the shots four
divided by their goals for to give you the average number of shots it takes to
score a goal we’re taking their average goals against and then their average
shots against again that that’s calculated in a similar way for the
expected shots against and then we’re filling out a few other fields here as
well so these will automatically be calculated for you so expected goals
against and then shots against divided by opponent shots per goal so I know
that sounds complicated but if you look at it it’s quite logical so all this is
saying is your average if we look at the formula H three so H three is here so
the expected shots against it’s taking that and then it’s just dividing that by
the opponents so in this case the coyote average shots per goal which is twelve
point one three blah blah okay so that tells us that we can expect roughly two
and a half goals based on that criteria and the reason we do this is we’re
trying to get as many different combinations of potential outcomes as
possible just to get a good go a good potential goal total and then we compare
it to the line so you can see here the line was actually five and a half and
our blended goal total lands right on five and a half so that tells us a
couple things one it seems fairly accurate but two there’s probably not a
lot of value in the line right if if we know that the line is five and a half
and our totals are landing right around that
even within a quarter puck you’re probably not gonna want to take it
especially when the odds here are not really leaning one way or the other
however let’s say the Coyotes home goals for was actually Institute 0.67 let’s
say it was four now you can see just by adjusting that one metric even if we
keep everything the same you can see now that our goal total jumps up to six and
a half so if we were ever doing this and this actually came up the other night
there was a total of five and a half and the our calculations came out to four
and a half if you’re ever doing this and it comes out like that now you see if
you actually think it’s six and a half and the line is at five and a half and
you look at the over we’re getting we’re getting positive odds this is probably a
good bet if it’s under same thing you still always want to take into
consideration the predicted probabilities as well as the implied
probabilities from the book but that’s that’s just something you can do so
again I made these calculators for you guys if you want to use them great if
not no worries I definitely recommend making a copy
first though so that way it’s you can you can make sure that it’s your your
stats and info and that other people aren’t going to be going in and changing
things up so I hope you find this helpful I’m going to add a link to the
video to walk you through rate to the calculators and then I’ll share this let
me know what you think thanks guys