# Kelly Criterion Calculator – Gambling Mathematics, Betting Formula 2020 Profits!

guys Kellen from Action Backers here hope

you all had an awesome New Year’s Eve and having a good start to your 2019 I

just wanted to talk to you quickly today about something I talked about in the

podcast which is how we bet for value so I thought it’d be cool to put together

for you guys a few calculators that I use so this is a spreadsheet that you

can use on your own so the first thing you’re gonna want to do here is just

come to file and then you’re just gonna want to make a copy for yourself and

that way you can edit it for yourself but let’s go through what these cells me

and how to actually use this sheet so to start with we have our IV calculator and

this is really simple so all you’re gonna say is whatever your risk is so in

this case we’re risking one point six six units to win one and then you’re

gonna set your unit size so I have it set to 25 but you can change it to

anything like and then you’re gonna enter in your predicted win percentage

so if you think it’s gonna win if you’re 65 you think there’s a chance that’s

gonna win sixty five point eight percent of the time then your evie on this bet

is five dollars and eighty cents in the long run meaning you should make that

bet however if we come to the second example if you’re risking one point

eight units to one one and you think that you’re the win percentage is only

fifty two percent you can see based on a hundred dollar unit size in the long run

you’re actually losing thirty four dollars and forty cents and you can

change this up you know even if it’s ten or actually let’s do I don’t know five

dollars even on five dollars you’re losing a dollar seventy two so you don’t

want to make that bet okay sometimes you’ll run into these marginal

bets here so you can see we’re risking two to win one but we think it’s a sixty

six point seven percent chance to win so 2/3 2/3 percent a chance to win and

you’ll see here that it’s in the long run it’s it’s plus evie but it’s

marginal so these are some of the ones where you’re laying a lot of juice maybe

on a heavy favorite so you’ll want to pick your spots here so

that’s essentially the e V calculator and how that comes into play is with the

implied probability and the Kelly criterion so excuse me the implied

probability this is essentially you’re just plugging in the odds that you’re

getting from your book so your positive and your negative and that’ll work out

the the vague that the books actually taking so an example here you know the

better I found the the underdog is playing at plus 175 and the favorite is

at minus 195 so you’ll notice here for the negative odds you don’t actually

have to put the negative in front you just type in the number and it’ll

calculate the fake so right now on this book the the on this bet sorry the book

is taking two and a half percent now what this means is we can use this

implied probability as well as an Eevee calculator to figure out what we should

bet so in this case we’ll look at the positive odds here so let’s say the book

thinks or though the line is telling us that it’s a thirty six point three six

percent chance to win but we actually think it’s forty percent what we’ll take

what we’ll do here first of all we can plug that in so let’s say we’re gonna

risk one to win one point seven five right and this is just divided by ten

divided by 100 here and let’s say one hundred hundred dollars unit size so

here we actually think it’s forty percent so you can see this is plus Evie

and Lauren we’re actually making ten dollars so but what what should we bet

should we just bet one unit on this sure we’ve got five units who really know

should we bet $100 I don’t know so to figure that out all

you would do is you would take the odds that you’re given so 175 convert them to

decimal odds which I’ve set up on this calculator to do for you so all you’re

going to do is plug in the decimal it’s here 2.75 your projected win

probability which we said was 40% and that’s going to calculate the

recommended wager size as a percentage of your bankroll and you can see the

different options for the full Kelly criteria on half 3rd quarter and eighth

that’s also going to tell you the corresponding weight your size in

dollars okay so in this case we should make that bet

if we wanted to get really aggressive with the full Kelly we’d be embedding

$57 I usually look at the half or third Kelly that’s that’s where I’m

comfortable your risk of ruin is a lot lower but you still have a lot of upside

so in this case I’d probably be looking around 1/2 Kelly so we’d want to make a

bet around $29 calculated as a as a unit that looks like 1.16 units so this unit

measurement is essentially just taking this calculation here which I’ve set to

two and a half percent of your bankroll so again you can enter your current bank

roll in here and you can see if we you know let’s do something like that it

will automatically calculate for you and change up everything you need so in this

case we like 1/2 Kelly 1.16 units again if you wanted to change up this unit

size make it more aggressive or more conservative you would just have to

click on the little 25 here and change the formula so essentially right now

it’s just multiplying the current bankroll by 25% which is pointing or

sorry 2 and 1/2 percent in which is point zero to five so if you wanted to

make it say 5% you either change it to a 5 and that would give you 50 if you

wanted to get really aggressive and change it to like 10% you go point 1 and

they’ll be obviously a hundred dollars I think especially with bank rolls around

$1,000 two and a half percent is really good to

start with and adjust as you feel comfortable again this is just to get

you a sort of a baseline you’re gonna be the Kelly criterion in the percentage of

your bankroll to tell you but I know like people like to see unit numbers and

things like that and for tracking and make things easier so all we’re gonna do

here is we like this play so now we have obviously up here our potential plays

and this is just to keep track while you’re going through and doing your

homework so you can see here I have a few plays from the other day and the

Hurricane Center’s Red Wings tabs and the Sharks and the Oilers that was from

New Year’s Eve we won three three point nine units on on this play mainly from

parlaying the the hurricanes and the Habs we got a huge like really great

price on the halves as you can see there were underdogs but we had them as big

favorites so we we bet them a lot there and then so all you would do is you

would just say Team X whoever you’re betting on and then you can just take in

you know if you want your half Kelly you would just say one point one six units

and it will tell you the wager amount that way you can get all your play set

up do your homework and then go to your book and just enter in your dollar

amounts for each play makes it really simple so this is this is mostly for

money line bets obviously it works for spreads as well if you want to or puck

lines just to check so for hockey specifically we use it mostly for money

line and and puck line but but it applies no matter what you’re betting

the other thing we have here that I made for you guys is a totals calculator now

I’ve made this specific to hockey so if you’re not looking to bet hockey that it

might not apply to you but the principle sort of remains the same so essentially

what we have here is anywhere you see blue in the cell other than this blended

goal total that’s an input okay so and essentially what we’re trying to do is

get a blended total using a couple different metrics and see compare that

total to what the actual line is so in this case you can see here we’ve gone

ahead and filled this this is old the road team was Vegas and

the home team were the Coyotes so the road team we took Vegas and however you

choose to figure this out is up to you we took the road goals for on average

which was two point seven four goals their shots four which is three point

nine six shots thirty one point nine six three shots four and then their average

shots per goal and this is simply just taking this number here the shots four

divided by their goals for to give you the average number of shots it takes to

score a goal we’re taking their average goals against and then their average

shots against again that that’s calculated in a similar way for the

expected shots against and then we’re filling out a few other fields here as

well so these will automatically be calculated for you so expected goals

against and then shots against divided by opponent shots per goal so I know

that sounds complicated but if you look at it it’s quite logical so all this is

saying is your average if we look at the formula H three so H three is here so

the expected shots against it’s taking that and then it’s just dividing that by

the opponents so in this case the coyote average shots per goal which is twelve

point one three blah blah okay so that tells us that we can expect roughly two

and a half goals based on that criteria and the reason we do this is we’re

trying to get as many different combinations of potential outcomes as

possible just to get a good go a good potential goal total and then we compare

it to the line so you can see here the line was actually five and a half and

our blended goal total lands right on five and a half so that tells us a

couple things one it seems fairly accurate but two there’s probably not a

lot of value in the line right if if we know that the line is five and a half

and our totals are landing right around that

even within a quarter puck you’re probably not gonna want to take it

especially when the odds here are not really leaning one way or the other

however let’s say the Coyotes home goals for was actually Institute 0.67 let’s

say it was four now you can see just by adjusting that one metric even if we

keep everything the same you can see now that our goal total jumps up to six and

a half so if we were ever doing this and this actually came up the other night

there was a total of five and a half and the our calculations came out to four

and a half if you’re ever doing this and it comes out like that now you see if

you actually think it’s six and a half and the line is at five and a half and

you look at the over we’re getting we’re getting positive odds this is probably a

good bet if it’s under same thing you still always want to take into

consideration the predicted probabilities as well as the implied

probabilities from the book but that’s that’s just something you can do so

again I made these calculators for you guys if you want to use them great if

not no worries I definitely recommend making a copy

first though so that way it’s you can you can make sure that it’s your your

stats and info and that other people aren’t going to be going in and changing

things up so I hope you find this helpful I’m going to add a link to the

video to walk you through rate to the calculators and then I’ll share this let

me know what you think thanks guys

Hey man, I work with a decimal odds and i do not understand how works the ricks columm.

Can u explain ?

Thanks

how due you determine win probability? is it just your opinion? Would using pinnacles percentage for a comparison be smart?